UFC 238: Cejudo vs Moraes Betting Picks

The UFC heads to Chicago this weekend for a stacked UFC 238 PPV card that includes two title fights (Cejudo vs Moraes and Shevchenko vs Eye) and the peoples main event Cerrone vs Ferguson. This is really a stacked card from top to bottom, but I have to say it was the Cerrone vs Ferguson announcement that really put this card over the top.

I have four plays for the card which you can see below. I’ve used the best odds available for each of my plays from any of our top rated betting sites for Canadians.

Henry Cejudo vs Marlon Moraes

This title fight is a very hard fight to call. Cejudo has taken his game to another level and beaten two of the pound for pound greats in his last two outings, squeaking out a split decision over Demetrious Johnson and then making quick work of former bantamweight champion T.J. Dillashaw this past January. He now moves up to face Moraes for the vacant bantamweight belt after Dillashaw popped for PED’s.

Moraes has won 4 straight in the division, including three straight first round finishes over some of the biggest names in Bantamweight (Sterling, Rivera and Assuncao). The guy is an absolute beast who can finish in a variety of ways.

All of that said about Moraes, I still think Cejudo’s wrestling game and improved striking will be enough to get the job done. He has the ability to fight in a lot of different ways and as long as he can avoid a quick KO from Moraes, I think he has the advantage in a five round fight. He’s the more active fighter, and with his wrestling he has a lot of ways to win rounds. Unless Moraes gets another early KO, I think Cejudo gets this win.

Play: Cejudo 2.10

Donald Cerrone vs Tony Ferguson

I’m a huge Donald Cerrone guy. I bet him as an underdog in his last three fights, so he’s probably won me the most of any UFC fighter over the past 6 months. That said, Ferguson is on a completely different level than Perry, Hernandez or Iaquinta, and yet Cerrone is lined as a smaller underdog in this fight than in 2 of those 3, and basically the same as against Iaquinta.

I think this is the most accurate line of the three, but I do think this is the first fight where Cerrone deserves to be the underdog in that span. Ferguson has an unpredictable style and he’s not afraid to take a punch to close the distance and land a bigger shot of his own. He also has very unorthodox defense where he can scramble out of bad situations with ease. This being a three round fight I think gives Cerrone a reasonable shot at the win, but I still think Ferguson is the rightful favourite and wins this fight 2 out of 3 times, which means he should be lined closer to 1.50.

There are question marks with Ferguson, but if these guys fought a year ago, Tony would be like a -400 favourite. I think there is a lot of recency bias working for Cerrone this time (when usually it has worked against him) and against Ferguson due to his layoff.

I’ll take Ferguson to get the job done and emerge back on the scene as the true title contender.

Play: Ferguson 1.74

Jessica Eye vs Valentina Shevchenko

Shevchenko is a massive favourite in this fight and rightfully so. The only reason I’m betting this is because Sports Interaction has Shevchenko at 1.10, while most other sportsbooks have her at 1.07.

I don’t see any way Eye wins this fight. She doesn’t have the power or jiu jitsu to get a finish and there’s no way she outlands Valentina en route to a decision.

Play: Shevchenko 1.10

Alexa Grasso vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Grasso had a lot of hype coming into the UFC, but she’s gone 2-2 and I think she’s kind of been exposed as a hype train. Even her most recent win over Randa Markos was a split decision that could have gone either way. I’ve not been impressed with her stand-up, which was supposed to set her apart either.

This fight should stay standing and I think Karolina will have more output and do more damage en route to a convincing decision win.

Play: Kowalkiewicz 1.87