2024 Kentucky Derby Betting Picks and Morning Line Odds

The morning line odds and post positions have been released for the 2024 Kentucky Derby. It’s time to really dive into the research and figure out which bet(s) I like for Saturday.

The first thing you notice when looking at the odds is that Fierceness (5-2) and Sierra Leone (3-1) are the two favourites, and there are only 5 horses in the field of 20 that have odds of 10-1 or shorter. The odds then stretch to 20-1, so it would be a surprise if one of the five top contenders didn’t win on Saturday.

The Derby is so exciting and fun to handicap because there isn’t a huge amount of information on the three-year-old horses. They have often only ran a few races each, and the Kentucky Derby will be the first time most horses in the field have competed with each other.

2024 Kentucky Derby Morning Line Odds

Below are the official morning line odds (and post positions) for the 2024 Kentucky Derby, set for the 50th straight year by Mike Battaglia.

The morning line is the odds that each horse will begin the day at when betting opens in the Racebook.  The odds will change throughout the day depending on the amount of money that is wagered on each horse.  The amount of money bet on each horse relative to the entire amount bet on the race winner will determine each horses final odds.  Check out our parimutuel betting system page for a further breakdown of this form of betting, which is the norm in horse racing.

1. Dornoch 20-1
2. Sierra Leone 3-1
3. Mystik Dan 20-1
4. Catching Freedom 8-1
5. Catalytic 30-1
6. Just Steel 20-1
7. Honor Marie 20-1
8. Just a Touch 10-1
9. Encino 20-1
10. T O Password 30-1
11. Forever Young 10-1
12. Track Phantom 20-1
13. West Saratoga 50-1
14. Endlessly 30-1
15. Domestic Product 30-1
16. Grand Mo the First 50-1
17. Fierceness 5-2
18. Stronghold 20-1
19. Resilience 20-1
20. Society Man 50-1

There are 20 horses taking part in the race and, as you can see 15 of those horses have morning line odds of 20-1 or longer. Fiercness (5-2) and Sierra Leone (3-1) are the two favorites, while Catching Freedom (8-1), Just a Touch (10-1), and Forever Young (10-1) are considered the other top contenders leading into the race.

The Kentucky Derby futures odds, which are fixed odds, are already a little bit different than these morning line odds, so I would expect to see these odds change slightly on race day.

My Kentucky Derby Pick

I like the odds for Fierceness at 5-2. I think he’s the fastest horse in the field. He won the Florida Derby in very impressive fashion, running away from the field down the stretch. He also won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in November, so he’s no stranger to winning big races.

Fierceness won the Florida Derby in an impressive time of 1:48.22. If he’s able to keep that pace for the longer Kentucky Derby, I think he should win the race. Fierceness seems to be peaking at the right time and if he’s able to run a good race he has a great chance of winning on Saturday.

Fierceness 5-2

Below you can see Fierceness running away from the field at the Florida Derby last month.

I suggest that you check out our horse race betting section to learn about the different bets you can make on the Derby, as well as some of the different racing terms you should know when placing your horse racing bets.