I know a lot of tipsters were on Adam Hadwin to win at 100/1 last week. Unfortunately, I wasn’t one of them, but back to the drawing board here for the Arnold Palmer Invitational in Orlando, Florida. The weather for the week looks good. There will be a little bit of wind, but nothing that should affect the tournament too much.
It is possible to go low at the Bay Hill Club and I’m expecting a score of between -15 and -20 to win the tournament. When there is a possibility to go that low it means that birdie or better percentage is a very important stat this week. The other stats I will be looking at include strokes gained around the green, strokes gained approach and tee to green. I will also be focusing more this week on recent form and course history because the stats weren’t lining up extremely well based on previous winners of the event.
Below I’ll provide my 6 top outright winner picks for the week. I’ll be using the best odds available from any of our top rated sportsbooks which you can see in the table below.
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Henrik Stenson 9/1 @ SportsInteraction.com
It’s hard to dismiss Stenson’s course history at Bay Hill. He has a 3rd, 2nd, 5th, 8th and 15th in his last five trips to this course. That is simply ridiculous course history and he’s obviously done everything, but win this event.
It may not seem like Stenson performed that well at the Valspar because round 1 was his best score, but he still played solid golf down the stretch and held on for a 7th place finish. He will be one more week removed from his illness in Mexico and I think his form is actually fairly solid heading into this week.
An each-way bet on Stenson will also cover him finishing in the top 5 here, which he has done in each of the last 3 trips to Bay Hill.
Justin Rose 20/1 @ Bet365.com
Rose is another guy that’s checking off all of my boxes this week. He’s 10th in birdie or better percentage on tour this season, 6th in strokes gained approach, 10th in strokes gained tee to green and 38th in strokes gained around the green. Simply put his game lines up perfectly with Bay Hill. His recent form is also very solid, with 2 top 5’s in his last four starts and his course history also checks the box with 4 top 15 finishes in his last 7 trips to Bay Hill, including a 9th place finish last year.
Brandt Snedeker 38/1 @ SportsInteraction.com
Snedeker is a guy who can always win if he gets the putter going. He’s ranked 24th on tour in birdie or better percentage, 27th in strokes gained around the green and 55th in strokes gained approach.
He ticks off the recent form box as well with 3 top 10’s in his last 4 starts. His course history is ok with a 36th, 13th and 8th in the past 3 seasons, but he has came to the tournament in each of the past 8 seasons so he will be very familiar with the course.
I think this is a good price for a guy who can get hot on the greens and go low.
Chris Kirk 165/1 @ 5Dimes.eu
My first venture into the 100/1 plus territory will be with Chris Kirk. Kirk did miss the cut last week at the Valspar, but I do still like him at this price. His course history is decent with a 12th last year and a 16th four years ago. The missed cut last week came after a three week break, so he should be back into the swing of things this week and ready to perform better.
He’s ranked 25th in birdie or better, which means he has the ability to go low and he’s proven he can win on Tour in the past with 4 PGA Tour wins including a win in each of 2013, 2014 and 2015.
William McGirt 290/1 @ 5Dimes.eu
McGirt is an interesting guy to take a flyer on this week. He’s played this tournament for the past 6 years, finished 8th in 2013 and has only missed the cut once. He looked like his game was improving a bit at the WGC-Mexico Championship a couple weeks back and when he’s on he does have a very solid tee to green game when he’s playing well.
If his putter can get hot he will have a chance this week. There’s been rumblings that he’s very pumped up to perform well at this tournament and at this price I don’t mind tossing a couple pucks his way.
Danny Lee 415/1 @ 5Dimes.eu
I’ve always been a big fan of Danny Lee and I think when he’s on his game he can compete with the best in the PGA. He’s had a very rough start to the season with a batch of 5 MC/WD’s in a row, but after his week off he came back and finished 22nd last week at the Valspar. Lee is a guy who can make birdies and when he puts its all together he has the ability to compete for titles.
Lee did miss the cut here last year, but two years ago he finished 17th with a -9. Danny Lee also knows how to win tournaments having won a tournament on the PGA, European, Web.com, Australasian and Asian tours, as well as winning the US Amateur back in the day. Lee can close and at this price, with him getting his game back together, I like him as a flyer.
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